Yellow Scenario

Please note: This scenario is partly taken over from ‘The long recession’ scenario, in: Cuhls, Kerstin; Rosa, Aaron; Weber, Matthias; Giesecke, Susanne; Wasserbacher, Dana; Könnölä, Totti (2022) for the European Commission (ed.): Foresight. After the new normal: Scenarios for Europe in the post Covid-19 world. Foresight on Demand (FoD). KI-09-22-097-EN-N. European Commission 2022. ISBN 978-92-76-48939-9. doi: 10.2777/21884. The scenarios were built as context scenarios for future research, technology and innovation in general without explicit links to food systems but addressing food security as an issue. The scenarios were created by members of the European Commission, external experts and a team from Foresight on Demand. The time horizon was also 2040

Autocrats around the globe had a run – also in Europe – and democracy is on the decline. More and more right- and left-wing parties pledge for radical and drastic solutions. In search of orientation and alternatives people vote for them. This was a move away from the neo-liberal assumption that everything can be purchased on the world market towards policies stimulating production for the national market, with protectionist measures in place (tariffs, import quotas, quality standards) restricting international trade of bulk and foodstuffs, benefitting the domestic economy.
This went hand in hand with a ‘back to nature’ classic conservatism, idealising ‘simple life’ including small plot vegetable production, eye to eye with environmental concerns and concerns over access to food. In 2040, we see some of the results: Some countries left the EU and the remaining Member States are not very united. ‘My country first’ is the major slogan. This does not provide stability in economic terms and led to food insecurity all over the globe. The recession that started in 2024 was never resolved. Recession comes back from time to time and there is no stability in the prospects.

Economic downturn: A long recession started in the 2020s, after the global pandemic induced changes in economies and the war in Ukraine with all its geopolitical effects. Global turmoil and several wars and military operations added to many food insecurities, mainly regionally, but it demonstrated how vulnerable people are. Until 2040, supply chains, travel industry and investment flows were disrupted at different times and for longer periods. People, at least those with regular jobs, are saving and not spending their money, fearing even worse times. This behaviour is further fuelling a severe and long-term depression that defines the economy of 2040.

The political and economic leaderships’ failure to take socio-economic counter measures early enough was followed by a number of regime changes, beginning with major political shifts in Iran and the USA. Across the globe, economic systems under stress have led to widespread economic collapse, and humanitarian catastrophes have become all too common. In the EU, there was a slow move away from the neo-liberal assumption that everything can be purchased on the world market towards policies stimulating production for the national market, with protectionist measures in place (tariffs, import quotas, quality standards) restricting international trade of bulk and foodstuffs, benefitting the domestic economy. We, citizens, did not really notice it, but it went hand in hand with a (classic right-wing) ‘back to nature’ classic conservatism, idealizing ‘simple life’ including small plot vegetable production, facing on the other side (classic left-wing) environmental concerns or concerns over access to food, abating poverty with measures stimulating private vegetable production in gardens of households now formally obliged to remove terrace tiles and other decking materials. Research investments for food security, innovation and systems improvements were not exempt from this creeping crisis, and some argue that the situation of the R&I budgets has been responsible for a marked slowdown in the pace of technological development, particularly within the EU.

And what about the European Union? The continuous economic and political decline that began in the early 2020s had direct and indirect effects on traditional European values (like inclusion, tolerance, justice, solidarity and non-discrimination as well as human dignity, freedom, democracy, equality, rule of law and human rights9), which changed when being confronted with the realities of economic downturn, war, and a serious re-nationalisation movement. Unfriendly forces from the US and Russia affected the EU’s collective polities and especially security policy funnelling conspiracy theories to the general populace and with that even further undermining trust in governing institutions. Some populist leaders, seeking to gain power on a nationalist agenda, have seized the momentum to lead their nation-states to exit the EU. Worldwide, more and more autocrats appear – ruling like kings, e, seeding hatred and controlling and tracking their population.

The flight of the financial markets into cryptocurrency in the 2020s led to a bubble that eventually crashed, causing turbulences in commodity stocks. This caused a crash in the food market, and the over-investments in housing finally ended in a housing crisis, an explosion of food prices on the stock market and a cascade of other crashes. A race to the bottom has ensued for environmental standards, as countries compete to attract business and investments from all over the world. This trend has also influenced the economic and environmental policies of nations remaining in the EU. Most, but not all, EU countries stay together, but only because a complete break-up of the EU would even worsen the situation, and their minor, but notable, successes have bolstered the narrative that concerted efforts are more effective than singular nationalist strategies. Values of fundamental freedom are relative, but flexibility and acceptance of difference remain important to keep the EU together.

Nevertheless, in 2040, individual nation-states and their specific interests are dominating the political agenda within the EU, undermining ‘common policies’. The dominant preference is again one of an ‘intergovernmental Europe”, as a collaboration between independent nation-states, moving away from the ‘Communautaire Europe” with its supranational perspective that was steadily built after the days of De Gaulle. In some parts of the Union, regulations curtailed individual rights, with little resistance from the people as they are used to top-down decisions and do not question them anymore. The originally temporal preventative pandemic measures from the 2020s became permanent and led to more and more surveillance. Outside the Union, such tendencies went even further. In some departed nations, ‘crisis management’ was synonymous with the elimination of privacy and personal liberties, and placed disproportionate power in the hands of a small elite. Autocratic forces emerged from within the EU. People were searching for political guidance in a fractured political landscape; a development in the 2030s promoting nationalistic policies and isolated
9https://ec.europa.eu/component-library/eu/about/eu-values economies. ‘My country first – me first!’ ‘Why should we care?’ These are the slogans of 2040 that propagate individualistic mindsets and nationalist sentiment, as promoted (and lived) by leaders in society. The retreat of the state from several formerly public duties caused by empty budgets might invite criminal organisations to fill the gap and make corruption common.

Companies paralysed: Most companies have had tough times for a long time, and these times are not over. Most companies could only muddle through the crises. One of the effects of the pandemic were ‘zombie’ companies, surviving only on the welfare payroll. This created an environment in some of the European countries where especially medium-sized but also large food companies got more and more dependent on ‘welfare’, receiving one state-guaranteed loan after the other even though public budgets were under pressure. Smaller companies in the ‘right’ sector (offering healthcare or specific equipment at the right time) survived, while others got bankrupt. SMEs are still the biggest employers in the EU, but more and more SMEs have become single-person companies as the economy shed jobs and former big employers reduced staff and slowed hiring. This obviously also affects the food sector, where these dynamics shortened supply chains and fragmented production. Producing food in 2040 is more expensive but smaller companies facilitate diversification. Because of the collapse of the ‘free’ international food market, now curtailed by protectionist measures of notably the United States and China, the dominance and purchasing power of main large supermarket holdings is declining to the benefit of regional food supply via small and medium scale distribution companies.

After the riots in the mid-2020s, companies were not allowed to send people into unemployment, if they wanted state subsidies. As now many of their personnel retired, they are no longer large employers, many are automated companies. People are a cost factor, not an asset anymore. Many SMEs specialise in small, narrow, but truly global markets – wherever economic activity and profit are possible.

Inequalities in society have drastically increased since 2020. Economic recession and unemployment hit vulnerable populations the hardest during the pandemic and the following crises, especially in countries without a functioning welfare state or fiscal policy flexibility. In 2040, women, minorities, non-citizens, and other traditionally weaker groups have become much more marginalised, and poor economic conditions reinforce this trend.

Many people moved. In the 2020s, following the first pandemic wave, many people moved to the countryside. We first saw the phenomenon in major metropolitan areas (i.e. Paris, Rome and Madrid), where citizens moved to smaller, rural communities or sub-urban areas that were seen as safer, healthier places to live during the crisis. People were encouraged to move away from cities by remote working opportunities – and those who left never returned. As those who left were those who could afford to leave, urban economies became depressed and urban social disparities were amplified. Cities have lost large parts of their ‘bourgeois’ populations with a stable income and consistent spending habits, and in 2040 many urban areas are decaying from the lack of tax support and depressed markets. Many people no longer dare to live in dense urban neighbourhoods (because of safety, security, disease spreading, noise pollution, etc.). In 2040, many global populations have become increasingly de-urbanised and distributed, including those in the EU. This has influenced property markets – raising the prices of living in rural areas and depressing the formerly expensive city centres. People commute for work and culture – but cultural exhibits and centres are no longer concentrated in urban areas. Some of the attractive events still take place in the cities, but many have become hybrid and can be accessed digitally. Many people are considering migrating to China, to escape from the depressed economies and unstable social conditions in Europe, now, as China is open for immigrants.