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Green local and regional ecosystems managing nature to fulfil major services

Green Growth is key in 2040. Nutrition for all is safe – green local and regional ecosystems managing nature make it possible to fulfil major services (providing resources for food production, keeping landscapes intact etc.) despite climate change, multi-crises and a fragmentation of the globe. Not everything is available all the time, and consumers understand the role of seasonal agriculture. The EU set the green frame with standards, and companies supported the development since the end of the 2020s. We managed to have enough, good and tasty food.

Figure 13 – Green Growth world

In the year 2040, society follows the concept of ‘Green Growth’. Sustainability aspects are integrated into the existing economic growth model. The carbon footprint has been established as a standardised ‘currency’ across the EU. EU member states have invested a lot of resources in developing a fair system that can be used by everyone. Advances in digitalisation and a high level of transparency in the food chain now make it easy for everyone to participate. At the same time, this change has led to a significant reduction in bureaucracy for business and local authorities including the removal of a large number of sector-specific data collection (were never used) and environmental regulations. This has led to a high level of acceptance among businesses, regions and society. But society does not renounce consumption.

This model is promoted by standards and regulations. Many programmes stimulate innovators who bring ideas, technologies and products to the market that foster sustainable development, particularly in Europe. The clearly green direction of innovations and innovation policies motivates many for new, sustainable businesses. National governments and the EU support this approach, with policy-makers setting rules, regulating and providing subsidies. The EU and the Member States set the framework with their legislation, leading and paving the way towards a ‘green direction’, and companies follow the rules.

International corporations have recognised the opportunity to invest in many new emerging markets. New ideas and ways of working are spreading worldwide, many originating in Europe. Society, the private sector as well as political decision makers have realised that when integrating sustainability aspects in all decisions, in the long run, society will be better off. This makes it easier for consumer associations and environmental NGOs and researchers to be heard by companies and society, and to find alliances for the necessary moves towards sustainable development. On this new marketing front, companies have established structures that take responsibility for the health of end users or consumers. Eco-labels exist, are trustworthy and transparent. This enables consumers to make informed choices and there is greater awareness of the influence consumers have when purchasing. Furthermore, there are also participatory guarantee and certification schemes in place in which consumers themselves exercise oversight over production sites, judging the quality in light of sustainability-oriented quality criteria.

This leads to high service requirements by certain consumer groups. Those who have the possibility to follow ‘food trends’ do so in their search for a sustainable lifestyle. This continuous change is understood as an economic opportunity by the food industry, but by start-ups and smaller companies as well. All are promoting diversification of lifestyles – and the consumers follow. Still, not all groups of society have a choice. Vulnerable groups are limited in their choices, as they are conditioned via price and availability. They have to accept the quality they receive.

More resources are locally and regionally available than in the 2020s, and there is transparency in the food system regarding the resources’ origins through the Supply Chain Law. This is reflected in the trust in labels. Certain goods are no longer imported and had to be substituted by local alternatives. Prices increased for still imported goods. Some goods are not imported, because they cannot meet the sustainability standards set by the European Commission. There is international trade for some commodities, especially those, which can be produced elsewhere more efficiently, but strong regional clusters developed. The consumption of resources at the expense of third countries is greatly reduced through this approach. This goes hand in hand with the principles of a circular economy, as it is easier and more effective to close loops locally. Regional and interregional cooperation is more prevalent compared to the 2020s.

Land and soil are used and a strong focus is on soil health, maintained and managed for local needs, ensuring sufficient food supply at the local, regional and EU levels. The EU plays a regulatory role in this regard. This contributes to production and cost transparency, which means that true costs/ value are the core of the economy. Today, in 2040, the social and environmental burden that products cause is reflected in the price that consumers pay at the point of sale and thus, has a great influence on consumption patterns and food choices. People know the price of land, they know the price of the resources they consume – and they are willing to pay the price. Companies, as well as consumer associations, assist in training consumers to keep a balanced diet within this new framework.

There is mutual trust, including trust in science and governments, due to a shared sense of urgency to jointly address problems that threaten life on Earth as we know it. European solidarity and shared values are widespread, a European feeling of belonging to a joint sphere, a kind of community, sharing the same memes10 has developed. This is called ‘The New We’ (in the 2020s, there was a similar slogan ‘togetherness’). The local and regional connectedness within the food system further triggers this development. People enjoy the special features of the different regions also from a culinary point of view.

Conscious and bottom-up efforts drive a new kind of technological progress. Extensive participation procedures are in place to negotiate conflicting objectives in technology and further developments. Certain technologies and their applications are only accepted in selected areas that contribute to sustainable development. There is a shared responsibility within science as well as in society to think about solutions and actively contribute to them by integrating the solutions into everyday’s life.

And the whole endeavour is successful: In terms of climate change, the EU as well as the world has managed to decrease emissions, resulting in fewer adaptation needs than expected. To support the adaptation to the new temperatures and other conditions, new seeds (GMO and non-GMO depending on the region) and breeding technologies are being studied; efforts are starting to bear fruit. Concerns about the long-term threat from GMO plants to other species and the ecosystem are still discussed.

10 Memes are ideas, thoughts and information patterns that spread through communication. They are the cultural counterpart to the biochemical gene; they reproduce themselves, interact with their environment and adapt to it. Value memes are systems of memes and independent thought structures. Societies can be described according to their memes (Beck et al. 2005). We see a shrinking and ageing population in Europe amidst a growing global population. Attempts to manage demographics and migration have mixed success. Attempts to change birth rates did not work out and qualified migration could not be triggered to a great extent. Europe still needs more young, talented and qualified people.

There are frequent reorganisations of infrastructures due to demographic dynamics. Accelerated planning procedures and active participation of citizens enabled the fast transformation of energy, water and mobility infrastructures until now – this will be followed further. The European infrastructures are adjusted and improved to address the impacts of changing production and processing conditions in agri-food value chains as well. Recognition of climate-related challenges has led to proactive measures being implemented, which leads to a further relaxation of the production and ecosystem.