Red Scenario
Shocks unite Europe in a joint post-growth future
Climate Change hit Europe hard during the second half of the 2020s with all the symptoms that could be imagined and many people having to leave their homes worldwide. This could not be ‘recovered’ soon. Access to resources was very limited and the rush was great. People were forced to make radical changes in order to provide themselves with essential goods like water, food and housing even though the EU population was already shrinking at that time. A post-growth economy started to develop in the wake of the mid-2020s military crises, and now, in 2040, EU regulation supports remaining within planetary boundaries. Consumers and companies support this – they do not want to starve.
During the 2020s and 2030s, there has been a fast increase in temperatures that led to extreme weather events like heatwaves, droughts and heavy rainfall with landslides. These have significantly impacted the well-being of humans and other species and shifted what areas are suitable for specific crops. These events made fertile land become very scarce in some regions of the world, as well as in parts of Europe. This situation led to a mass climate migration at the beginning of the 2030s when people could not live in these regions anymore. Agriculture and food production became impossible there. On top, many cultivated plants often used in agriculture were not adapted to the new extremes; it was not easy to quickly find other plants, and only a few of them still deliver sufficient yields. Actions to face this had to adapt to the specific local needs as there were no universal solutions. Plant breeding research using indigenous varieties increased tremendously until 2040.
Globally, the population in 2040 still grows but the European population is shrinking. Nearly all European countries face low birth rates and ageing, as well as shrinking societies. Only migration from outside Europe keeps the food systems running, providing the necessary labour for production and distribution.
In response to these changing and challenging new and unstable conditions, an emerging post-growth economy is developing. European values (like inclusion, tolerance, justice, solidarity and non-discrimination as well as human dignity, freedom, democracy, equality, rule of law and human rights)5 have changed compared to 2023. Citizens often do not know these values and they are not stable, always changing and not made explicit. It is not clear which values will remain in the long run. Material wealth has lost importance but societal health and the pursuit of more intrinsic values are thriving. This change prompted policy-makers but also private parties such as pension funds (who need long-term prosperity), some companies and large parts of our societies to focus on sustainability and a longer-term vision.
Now, in 2040, the economic aim is to do business within planetary boundaries, accounting for the true costs of products (i.e. internalising externalities) and flowing profit back into production. This aim is incentivised with decreased taxes, but it is a genuine move for most economic actors. The consequences are low-profit margins, also triggered by the higher investments to retain the labour force, and more expensive and less variety of goods compared to the beginning of the 2020s. This affects all resources, particularly foodstuffs. Marketing exists but consists mostly of mutual information about the products. Aggressive marketing and influencing as known from the 2020s is history.
Trade is mainly local or regional, and only few mutual agreements for the import of selected food and resources exist beyond that. The composition of the food value chain has changed drastically since the 2020s, partly due to the virtual absence of cheap food coming from outside the EU. There is more regionalisation now. The most important staple food products are available, but some are very expensive and the quantitiesin food production are not as large as 20 years ago. Although the quantity of food available is smaller than in former times, there is a larger variety and diversification of food production within the EU as farmers want to make efficient use of the local conditions. Some old sorts were revived, and old techniques from former agricultural stages and simple food production were re-invented. The crop diversification helps somehow to mitigate the increased stress on biodiversity.
https://ec.europa.eu/component-library/eu/about/eu-values
The structure and power distribution within the food value chain allows for bargaining and trading on eye level, especially between farmers and the food industry, with many actors making deals and negotiating on equal terms and with a limited number of intermediaries. State or EU regulations focus mostly on shaping how things are produced and mostly do not interfere in these negotiations besides levelling the ground. These structures increasingly demand for shorter supply chains, avoiding intermediaries or large retailers. These chains develop gradually and give smaller producers, especially in agriculture, a bigger impact on what is consumed. But also small-scale retail, private online and offline markets or low-package direct marketing have their place.
Health, good taste of food and intrinsic motivation for sustainability are crucial for most consumer’s food choices. This helps pull producers into sustainability and quality food with implications for catering and wholesaling. Most people cook at home and eat self-made food. For dining out, ‘healthy restaurants” have spread.
People are socially cohesive and the Homo Empathicus6 emerged, the socially empathic one. People mostly trust scientific data, but a high degree of scepticism remains, which means that most try to verify what feels important to them even if they are not really equipped to do so. At the same time, open discussion and different opinions are highly appreciated. The trust in unstable governments and institutions, with ever-changing coalitions, is not high even though there is currently a high degree of priority alignment. Probably this is due to their previous inability to mitigate climate change.
As resources (land, energy and water) become scarce, the EU increasingly organises their use within Europe to improve biodiversity, water management, etc. One strategy is exploring innovative approaches to managing these resources, for example, collective ownership of land to grow food to help mitigate land scarcity. Transparency of resource utilisation for EU imported goods is satisfactory.
Innovation is more than technological innovation; social innovation plays a big role. Conflicting objectives in technology development are broadly discussed. Sustainable and socially responsible production and products are drivers of innovation and export opportunities. These include logistic innovations that incorporate local suppliers in the operational back end of supermarkets. At the European level, there is extensive investment in integrated, innovative infrastructures (transport, water energy and communication), partly to adapt to the new climate. In addition, the EU permanently strives for and provides digital sovereignty with own Artificial Intelligence solutions. ‘AI Made in Europe’ is established.