Green Scenario
Slowly moving towards a sustainable EU in a fragmented world
In 2040, Green Growth is key, but it still takes much effort to follow the way to sustainability and healthy nutrition for all. Companies take responsibility for the health and nutrition of citizens heading towards a sustainable EU. Old Europe is still not on a stable green path and growth is not guaranteed, but the EU strives for a just transformation and good quality nutrition for all in a very fragmented world. Many steps forward and many steps back have been gone since the end of the 2020s, and there were many detours on this way – but the EU learns from mistakes of the past and the European Commission is setting rules and standards as a frame. We need much more time for changes.
In the fragmented world of 2040, Europe slowly moves towards sustainability, embracing the concept of green growth. This means that sustainability aspects (including social sustainability) are being added to the growth paradigm. We Europeans are not fully convinced and have not achieved the goals until now, but there are many attempts and paths towards it. Standards and regulations are implemented to promote innovation and sustainability, attracting international and EU corporations to shift towards a ‘greener’ approach. While Europe strives for a more just world and develops narratives around this notion, inequalities were and are still growing in some parts of Europe and the world.
Economies and values compete within the EU, leading to regionalisation and an inward focus until the middle of the 2020s. However, in the 2030s, the necessity of cooperation within the EU and with other countries became apparent again, when the global community re-recognised the importance of (global) collaboration.
Companies of 2040 are very different from those in 2024: a different set of actors, new leadership, new thinking, small and large working together, etc. They are influenced by powerful citizen groups and play a crucial role in driving change, taking responsibility through their usual businesses and gradually building governance structures to facilitate it. They work for improving food quality, nutrition and the health of end consumers, as well as sustainability, and societal issues such as equality. But they are not always successful – and what some think would lead to sustainability turns out to be unsustainable, meaning harmful to the environment or driving the company into bankruptcy. The infrastructures for companies and their work are favourable: infrastructures undergo frequent reorganisation, with accelerated planning procedures and participation fostering the reorganization of energy, water, and mobility infrastructures.
It took a while for companies to reach this point. At first, they only acted because of pressure from citizens, but with time, one after the other changed mind, and now, companies are supporting policy-makers and European values. In the 2020s, companies were still purely profit-oriented, but high pressure from consumers and citizen groups made them change their minds. For still making profit, even though less than before, they accepted ‘green growth thinking’ and now even support it. This is why companies respect EU environmental regulation, follow the rules and are not opposing them. Even advertising of 2020 became new responsible marketing.
Citizen participation and contribution to social and societal issues and developments have increased significantly during the last 20 years. Political parties, which used to serve this purpose, and traditional school education have been complemented in recent years by a large number of new initiatives and developments, for example for knowledge exchange, often supported by some companies who saw their advantage early. Social engagement has become very important in European society. Politics has achieved this through a variety of new incentive systems and obligations for citizens, cities and regions.
Policy-makers set rules and regulations to steer companies towards a greener direction. State and EU power support: Policy-makers decide and set the rules in an EU with still existing and renewed regulations and subsidies. In the 2020s, policy-makers often talked about ‘European values’ but often, people did not understand them or did not live them, and policy-makers made use of values as pure narratives (‘we have better values than others’). But now the European values are clear and people live them. Mutual trust exists in Europe, trust in European science and governments, with European solidarity and shared values prevailing.
Europe is still ageing amidst an expanding and comparatively younger world population. But also the health of people improved. Many people in their 80s are still fit, and many of them work. Efforts are made to manage demographics (incentives for more babies) and migration within the EU but with limited success. Immigration is regulated but there are not so many people keen on coming to Europe as other places of the world seem to be more interesting and lucrative.
In this environment, consumers became more and more demanding. They thought they were on a green path, living a sustainable life already, trying everything. But in fact, they are not. Their food choices became atomised, influenced by different bubbles and evolving trends. There are high service requirements, diversification of the requirements of different groups and permanent changes, one ‘food trend’, often marked as ‘sustainable’, follows the other. The diversification of the last 10 years has led to a situation where there are countless lifestyles. What is more important: your way of living depends much more on which group of the society you belong to whether you have a choice at all. Vulnerable groups have very few choices as they are conditioned via price and availability. They must accept the quality they get. For the rest, eco-labels exist, and marketing is effective.
Consumers try everything and change their minds quite often – if they can afford it. That makes it difficult for people to follow a healthy diet. Some consumers are driven by food trends and others are limited by their low income with the consequence that mental health problems and obesity increased, but not as much as expected 20 years ago. Medical treatments against obesity, cardiovascular diseases and also for long-Covid patients are available and solve many of the formerly existing problems. One of the problems humans must still cope with is that water quality decreased drastically during the last 20 years, impacting the food supply and the health of citizens. Efforts are on the way but this struggle is a permanent one.
Nevertheless, some see the European Union as a role model of the world because the European block is aligned with the support of a strong and coordinated science-policy-society interface. 20 years ago, some regarded any alignment as wishful thinking, but the war in Ukraine and the many other crises (floods, droughts, earthquake in Italy, oil disaster in the Netherlands, etc.) made clear that only a united EU can survive in a rivalling world. This paved the way for more collective reflection and more concentration on research and innovation with its first impacts starting to be apparent. A specific advantage is seen in the open flow of information and non-restricted mutual learning. The Member States and the new EU power are very supportive – also in balancing technological, social, and governance innovation. In 2040, policy-makers really do their job. They act on peoples’ behalves, they set the rules in the EU directing via regulation or subsidies, but leave the companies and market forces do some of the work. The single Member States set the frame on the national level and thus predefined into a ‘green’ direction.
Looking at the food system, transparency and resource control are prioritised nowadays, reducing resource consumption at the expense of third countries. But this sometimes collides with the consumer desires. Local resources are utilised wherever possible, ensuring enough food for the local, regional, and EU levels, but often not exactly what the new consumer trend demands for. Strong collaboration within the EU replaced the decreasing global food co-operations in the 2030s, leading to a strong domestic market.
Farmers found their place: after several years of discussions and protests, farmers have found green formulas – they know what to do, embracing regenerative and organic farming practices. Circularity is high on the agenda and the available resources are controlled by all actors. Food producers work hand in hand with farmers and try to innovate wherever possible. But they are often driven by the trends. Many technologies are used and newly adapted to the new requirements. Some equipment is not as heavy, anymore, having the advantage that for example tractors in all sizes are affordable and do not require long-term loans and high investments. Land and healthy soils are prioritised for local needs. Enough food for the local, regional and EU level is available with the EU regulating this. But in a still ageing society, in which people prefer to live in cities, there is a lack of skilled people and people ready to do the hard work on farms. This has many side effects on what can be produced at all and the varieties that are offered. Other impacts come from the uncertainty of what citizens may prefer as food in the next months – this has many effects on cattle production, fisheries and the possibilities to act in a circular way as planning and production get more and more difficult.
Efforts towards sustainability yield modest and sometimes arbitrary results. Climate change led to extreme weather events, food shortages, health consequences, and migration from the Earth’s hottest places increases. Biodiversity continued to decrease. The responsibility for climate change efforts falls on a collective effort of governments, companies, and individuals – we try to cope with the situation. Growth is still driving and even though it is ‘greener’ now, it does not mean that the EU is on a safe path.