Blue Scenario

This scenario depicts a situation where geopolitical, regulatory and social issues significantly limit the otherwise unchanged growth paradigm. Trade alliances foster sustainable food production and trade within their regions. On the other hand, these blocs create barriers to global trade and technology sharing, while an increase in prices brings back the thrifty mindset of reduce, reuse, and repair. Most companies promoting health and sustainability play a key role in making societies adapt to a new way of living. The EU’s regulations and subsidies support their sustainable practices.

In this scenario, the growth paradigm remains mostly unchanged since the beginning of the 2020s, but some stricter limits are set to narrow down large international companies, mostly by regulation. These are for the most part strong climate and environmental protection regulations integrated into economic policies set by states and the EU. But they are not the only constraints on growth.
In 2040, some trade blocs dominate – e.g. one around the USA/EU/Japan and one around China and its allies (e.g. African countries) – which limits the size of markets for the EU. The former big players are still strong, but partly due to the decreased competition, many medium-sized companies are major players in the European economy as well, and small companies can find their niches with relative ease, especially in food production.

This situation reverts significantly the global race to the bottom in companies’ conditions, for example regarding salaries of the employees.

This reduced pressure to lower wages significantly and increased the price and the quality of goods. Today, in 2040, higher prices have led towards lower consumption, increased emphasis on reuse, and an overall appreciation for the value of maintenance, which creates a feedback loop that further limits growth. Community sharing platforms, maintenance workshops and second-hand markets popularise, as are new lease concepts as a business model in the circular economy (e.g. lease a jeans), and play a crucial role in easing the financial burden that, otherwise, the less affluent in society would not be able to overcome.
The production and exchange of goods and services is mainly taking place within the trading blocs. However, there exist multilateral trade agreements that operate independently from the blocs, enabling exports outside the bloc (for example food is mostly produced where it is better ecologically to be produced). Only very few agreements develop and evolve over time, which does not provide companies with the regulatory stability needed to confidently expand into new markets. Markets are generally small now. Imports to the EU are highly regulated and many countries cannot meet the requirements, resulting in very limited trade with the EU.

This bloc situation hinders the global sharing of technologies, including those relevant to the food industry. Technology exports are strictly regulated and many of the new forms of breeding, the new machinery adapted to local situations or the bio-pesticising are neither exported nor is the knowledge shared. Each block has an own standard for digital technologies, and does not communicate with others fully. The first example for this was the digital Great Wall. The EU of 2040 has very strict technology regulation (including data protection and privacy) compared to many other regions. This decreases sharing even further.

Infrastructures for transport or the internet in Europe are one of the bottlenecks for economic development and food transport. Reorganisation and development of infrastructures do not keep up with the damages caused by rapid climate change symptoms of the late 2020s. Repairing railroads after heavy rains and thunderstorms or keeping the morbid streets intact are not only costly but need people who are not available in the EU.

Since the 2030s, population growth has slowed remarkably worldwide and notably in the EU. Although the developing countries from 2020 continue to grow economically, their population pyramids started to change (few new-borns, many are young and can expect a long life). Rural-urban migration in the EU slows down. Most people prefer to stay or migrate within their home regions.
The EU renewed regulations and subsidies manage to set the frame for companies to take responsibility for the health of end consumers and the environment. Following the lead of EU regulations and the push of a fraction of citizens and NGOs that stay up for people and environmental needs, most companies promote sustainability and health. For example, they take care that their production is sustainable in itself, that they use good but fewer resources, and they do not only produce healthy products while still making money. They have to accept less profit than before. The times of exaggerated profits are over. Stakeholders demand this profit-for-all attitude, which means that all have their share and not only a few profit heavily. If there is profit, this is re-invested in better production or innovation. Relatedly, policy and institutions improve long-term support for companies when they undergo a transition toward a more leasing-oriented or rental-based model, as opposed to traditional direct selling. Such support is needed to guarantee that these services will be provided (customers must not be left stranded by a broken company) also in the future.

Companies promoting health and sustainability, in turn, helped to sweep the rest of society along, as sustainability suddenly became much easier and convenient. In 2040, eco-labels still exist, and sustainability and health-oriented marketing is effective. Most consumers follow what is provided, marketed and easily available on the shelves. Proclaiming ‘trends’ in marketing is still a big thing. Those people who can afford to select carefully, are a niche – but it is largely unnecessary to follow a healthy or sustainable lifestyle. People trust in companies more than in states or the EU. They trust companies and their way of handling sustainability.

The responsibility to think about solutions and the need to contribute to them is high in society’s priorities. Therefore, technological progress and research happen mostly in selected areas that contribute to sustainable development. Research in other areas is not supported, anymore. In addition, extensive participation procedures for negotiating conflicting objectives in technology and its development are heavily used.

The EU and the world manage to decrease emissions. New seeds (GMO and non-GMO) and breeding technologies are available, and promoting breeding progress with a view to changing conditions (e.g. drought, salinisation, etc.). Multinational corporations have regulated access to the use of land, energy and water.