Skip to content

Food Scenarios

The following six scenarios are context scenarios. They describe POSSIBLE future environments of food systems in 2040. The scenarios were created by the FOSTER Team including our CDIs in a scenario sprint process with four workshops. Two scenarios were added during the discussions. The scenarios do not represent the opinion of the European Commission. They are working material for thinking ahead, robustness tests and further strategy work.

 

Trade alliances and soft regulation foster sustainability

This scenario depicts a situation where geopolitical, regulatory and social issues significantly limit the otherwise unchanged growth paradigm. Trade alliances foster sustainable food production and trade within their regions. On the other hand, these blocs create barriers to global trade and technology sharing, while an increase in prices brings back the thrifty mindset of reduce, reuse, and repair. Most companies promoting health and sustainability play a key role in making societies adapt to a new way of living. The EU's regulations and subsidies support their sustainable practices.

Shocks unite Europe in a joint post-growth future

Climate Change hit Europe hard during the second half of the 2020s with all the symptoms that could be imagined and many people having to leave their homes worldwide. This could not be 'recovered' soon. Access to resources was very limited and the rush was great. People were forced to make radical changes in order to provide themselves with essential goods like water, food and housing even though the EU population was already shrinking at that time. A post-growth economy started to develop in the wake of the mid-2020s military crises, and now, in 2040, EU regulation supports remaining within planetary boundaries. Consumers and companies support this – they do not want to starve.

No collective responsibility

In 2040, no collective responsibility is taken for societal issues, global commons, nutrition of people or other issues. Individual responsibility for others is very limited. The most important criteria for purchasing food are price and availability, with quality taking a backseat. Health or nutrition safety are not the priorities - people eat what is available and affordable. We live in an erratic and permanently changing world - without any trust in science or ourselves. Europe as a plaything for global (economic) interests tries to defend itself in a world of heatwaves, cold and hot spots, drought or floods and erratic weather phenomena.

Towards an EU of autocrats, nationalism and economic turmoil

Autocrats around the globe had a run – also in Europe – and democracy is on the decline. More and more right- and left-wing parties pledge for radical and drastic solutions. In search of orientation and alternatives people vote for them. This was a move away from the neo-liberal assumption that everything can be purchased on the world market towards policies stimulating production for the national market, with protectionist measures in place (tariffs, import quotas, quality standards) restricting international trade of bulk and foodstuffs, benefitting the domestic economy. This went hand in hand with a ‘back to nature’ classic conservatism, idealising ‘simple life’ including small plot vegetable production, eye to eye with environmental concerns and concerns over access to food. In 2040, we see some of the results: Some countries left the EU and the remaining Member States are not very united. 'My country first' is the major slogan. This does not provide stability in economic terms and led to food insecurity all over the globe. The recession that started in 2024 was never resolved. Recession comes back from time to time and there is no stability in the prospects.

Slowly moving towards a sustainable EU in a fragmented world

In 2040, Green Growth is key, but it still takes much effort to follow the way to sustainability and healthy nutrition for all. Companies take responsibility for the health and nutrition of citizens heading towards a sustainable EU. Old Europe is still not on a stable green path and growth is not guaranteed, but the EU strives for a just transformation and good quality nutrition for all in a very fragmented world. Many steps forward and many steps back have been gone since the end of the 2020s, and there were many detours on this way – but the EU learns from mistakes of the past and the European Commission is setting rules and standards as a frame. We need much more time for changes.

Green local and regional ecosystems managing nature to fulfil major services

Green Growth is key in 2040. Nutrition for all is safe – green local and regional ecosystems managing nature make it possible to fulfil major services (providing resources for food production, keeping landscapes intact etc.) despite climate change, multi-crises and a fragmentation of the globe. Not everything is available all the time, and consumers understand the role of seasonal agriculture. The EU set the green frame with standards, and companies supported the development since the end of the 2020s. We managed to have enough, good and tasty food.